Month: October 2015

The most pessimistic climate change scientist has had a sudden change of heart. #Auspol

The world has a better chance of saving itself from catastrophic global warming now than at any time over the past two decades, according to the scientist behind some of the most alarming predictions ever made for the planet’s future.
Johan Rockström shocked environmentalists in 2009 when he identified nine categories of Nature that were essential for life as we know it, and warned that we had already crossed into dangerous territory on three of them – including climate change.
Rockström, an environmental science professor at Stockholm University and executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, has since transferred a fourth category, deforestation, to his list of “planetary boundaries” in the danger zone, which threaten irreversible, devastating consequences to the planet.
But he has had a dramatic change of heart over global warming, and is more optimistic that the worst of the threat can be contained than he has been since 1992.

The nine threats
In the danger zone
Biodiversity loss: the fewer species in an ecosystem, the less healthy it is

Deforestation

Climate change

Eutrophication: Nitrate/phosphate build-up in water (from fertiliser) 

Other risks to life
Ocean acidification

Freshwater consumption

Chemical pollution, such as plastic 

Aerosol pollution

Stratospheric ozone depletion

His optimism is founded on the breakneck speed of innovation in wind and solar power in the past two to three years, which means that renewable energy is being deployed on a massive scale and, crucially, at a cost roughly comparable to fossil fuels. Only last week new figures showed that the cost of electricity produced by onshore windfarms in the UK has fallen so much that for the first time it is now cheaper than fossil-fuel energy. 

Rapid improvements in energy efficiency are also key, along with a drive to reduce waste and increase the volume of recycled materials used in manufacturing, he says.
These developments have effectively removed the last major impediment to dramatically reducing greenhouse gases, raising the prospect that even though the planetary boundary has been crossed on global warming, the world may be able to cross back again.
“We have a paradox unique to our era. On a scientific basis there is more reason to be nervous than ever before. But at the same time there has never before been so much reason for hope,” Professor Rockström told The Independent on Sunday. “The last time I was as optimistic was in 1992, with the Rio conference …. Then we lost 20 years. Now we’re back on a much more hopeful path,” he said.

Each year, 192 officials from around the world attend such a summit, often with disappointing results. This year’s event in Paris in December is billed as the most important ever, because world leaders have pledged to agree emissions cuts and other actions that will put the world on a pathway that will eventually limit global warming to 2C. In advance, countries have said how much they are prepared to cut emissions by 2030. While these cuts in themselves fall short of what is needed, the professor is hopeful a more comprehensive deal, involving further cuts beyond 2030, can be struck in Paris – meaning the summit will achieve its goal.
He says the situation regarding climate change is similar to that facing the stratospheric ozone layer, which protects us from the sun’s ultraviolet radiation, towards the end of last century. This was being so badly depleted by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in fridges and aerosols that the world had crossed “planetary boundaries”, threatening to dramatically increase cases of skin cancer. Then a cheaper alternative to CFCs was invented, the 1987 Montreal Protocol banned CFC use and the ozone layer recovered.
But Professor Rockström warns:“The negatives remain. The world’s coral reefs are so worryingly close to collapse, while the Arctic and Antarctic are deteriorating so rapidly they could hit tipping points that are irreversible … it’s now or never towards tipping the world to a very costly, very devastating future, versus tipping ourselves towards a sustainable future. 
“I take a sober, optimistic view.”

Press link for more: Tom Bawden | Tom Bawden | independent.co.uk

Five famous cities doomed by #ClimateChange #Auspol 

Whether you believe humans are contributing to it or not, climate change is happening, temperatures are rising and ice caps are melting.
At this point, even if we limit global temperature rise to 2oC, studies suggest sea levels will still rise by several feet.
Our civilization is in many ways a coastal one, so when the seas rise, and stay risen, that’ll do a real number on world populations and economies.
Here are five metropolises in climate change’s crosshairs.
Bangkok
Thailand’s capital isn’t just a popular tourist destination. It’s very much a working city, home to 15 per cent of Thailand’s 65 million people. 

It’s the center of a major, growing national economy, that nationwide includes a burgeoning manufacturing sector, and an agricultural sector that employs almost half the population around the country.
And the rising ocean is putting all of it under threat. One expert told AFP in 2011 much of the city, built on swampland, could be underwater in 50 years. 
That’s to say nothing of the additional flooding that happens during the monsoon season, or storm surge from the occasional typhoon. 
More powerful storms are likely in the coming century, and the Atlantic reports the monsoon season may be longer and more intense as well. 

Bangkok has already had a taste of what’s to come. The city spent a fair bit of coin developing manufacturing on former rice paddies in the Chao Phraya River floodplain, attracting big names like Sony, Honda and Toyota to set up shop. In 2011, massive flooding dealt huge damage to these industries, causing an estimated $45 billion in economic losses.
It won’t get much better as sea levels rise, and just this month 14 Thai provinces were experiencing flooding and landslides as Tropical Storm Vamco passed through the region.
Venice
This long-lived tourist paradise has had to fight the sea almost from day one from its precarious perch atop the low-lying islands of the Venetian lagoon.
Once a powerful merchant republic with a wide-reaching Mediterranean trading empire, Venice’s star has waned somewhat (The European Centre for Climate Adaptation says the population is down to around 70,000 in the lagoon, mostly due to major decline in industry), but its romance endures.

Unfortunately, it may finally be on its way to losing its fight to stay afloat, or at least have to pay dearly for it. 
With sea levels continuing to rise, flooding is becoming more common. Tides of 100 cm or more are expected to happen seven times per year, swamping the lowest-lying areas. It’ll be harder to attract tourists when they know flooding is more likely, costing the industry up to 42.9 million euros (C$ 64 million) by 2030. That’s not even factoring damage to the clam industry and the city’s infrastructure.
But the authorities haven’t been sitting there quietly waiting for it to happen. They’ve poured 5.4 billion euros (C$ 8 billion) into Mose, a series of concrete barriers in the lagoon’s inlets that will be raised when the tide is expected to reach above a certain level.
It could be completed as early as next year, according to the Guardian, but some detractors say it may already be obsolete. In 2009, researchers at Venice’s Institute of Marine Sciences said the Mose project was based on sea level rise predictions that may have been underestimated.
They recommended looking into alternatives, including pumping seawater into a 700 m deep aquifer to raise the city by up to 30 cm, according to the New Scientist.
Alexandria
This ancient metropolis is situated in the delta of Nile River. It’s seen empires rise and fall ever since it was first founded from scratch by Alexander the Great, and has endured for more than two millennia.
Though nowhere near as populous as the capital, Cairo, its importance to the country is far out of proportion to its size. The port handles four fifths of Egypt’s international trade, and is home to 40 per cent of the country’s industry, not to mention the tourism potential that comes from its prime Mediterranean location. 

And then there is the delta itself, which is one of the most fertile parts of the country. But, being a delta, its low-lying terrain makes it especially vulnerable to the rising waters.
Most reports we’ve seen factor in only a modest sea level rise, but even that could be devastating. A 25 cm increase would put 60 per cent of the city’s population underwater (according to the Climate Institute), and a half-meter increase would wipe out 66 per cent of the industry, most of the service sector and about a third of the city’s area.

delta, which accounts for 40 per cent of Egypt’s agricultural output, would suffer as well. The Canada-based International Development Research Centre says around 60 per cent of the delta would be affected by increased salinity due to sea level rise. 
It’s a potential economic disaster on top of the country’s political woes.
Guangzhou
This Chinese metropolis topped a recent World Bank study as the number one city most at risk of coastal flooding related to climate change.

That’s a huge problem. Guangzhou has already struggled with major flooding due to extreme weather and the occasional typhoon blowing in from the Pacific. In 2010, heavy rainfall killed dozens of people and caused $85 million in damages.
That last figure pales in comparison to what is to come. By 2070, the city will be home to some $3.4 trillion worth of what the OECD calls “assets at risk.” In 2005, more than two million of its denizens were exposed to coastal flooding, but by 2070, that’ll be up to 10.3 million. 
Guangzhou is an economic giant among China’s economic giants, and both that country and neighboring India will be hard-hit by sea level rise.

On that World Bank-led study, Mumbai is at number four, with $2 trillion in at-risk assets by 2070, and more than 10 million people exposed to coastal flooding effects.
Miami
Guangzhou was at the top of the last World Bank-led study, but Miami occasionally makes it into that spot on similar rankings.
America’s beachside Mecca is a haven for sunseekers, but rising sea levels are set to put a serious damper on property values. During spring and autumn tides, the city is already dealing with periodic flooding, and even a 30 cm rise in levels over the next century could prove catastrophic.

worse when you factor in storm surge from major tropical storms. 
2005’s Hurricane Wilma brought more than 200 cm of storm surge to the Miami area, a once-in-76-years event. If sea levels rise 60 cm, that kind of storm surge would be likely to happen once every five years.
The Miami-Dade area of Florida has more people living less than 120 cm above sea level than any other U.S. state except Louisiana, according to the World Resources Institute, accounting for 2.4 million of people whose homes and livelihoods are at risk (according to the Guardian).
At risk: Around $14.7 billion worth of beachfront property, and $21 billion in tourism revenues.

Press link for more: climatechange.searca.org

The Fires In Indonesia Are A Health And Climate Nightmare #Auspol

  
Military personnel watch a helicopter drop water to extinguish forest fire in Ogan Ilir, South Sumatra, Indonesia, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2015. Indonesia intensifies efforts to extinguish the forest fires that cause the haze, which blanketed parts of the archipelago and neighboring countries.

Indonesia is in the midst of the worst spate of forest fires in nearly two decades, sending choking smoke across Southeast Asia, releasing tons of carbon, and destroying thousands of acres of peat forest, one of the world’s most effective carbon sinks. The president of the island nation called for assistance this week from Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, and Russia to help fight the fires, which have been smoldering for months now.

“We have asked for help and we have received help from Singapore,” President Widodo said in a statement reported by Reuters. “We hope this will speed up the process because fires on peat land is different from regular forest fires.”

Indonesia had previously rejected an offer of help from neighboring Singapore, which has been suffering weeks of crippling pollution carried on trade winds. Malaysia, too, has been hit with the smoke from fires that were likely started by palm oil and wood pulp producers, who use slash and burn techniques to clear land on Sumatra and Borneo.

Singapore closed schools recently due to the smoke and has a standing alert on its environmental agency page. Exposure to smoke is associated with short- and long-term health impacts, including higher rates of asthma and asthma attacks and declines in cardiovascular health.

“Thousands of people in Sumatra and Kalimantan are sick. Little babies are dying because of the haze,” said Bustar Maitar, global head of Greenpeace’s Indonesia forests campaign.

Moreover, the fires burning in Indonesia are a climatologist’s nightmare — a perfect confluence of everything we should not be doing. Not only do forest fires release carbon and other greenhouse gases, they also reduce the amount of carbon absorbed by the environment. A recent study from the University of California, Berkeley found that carbon emissions from fires in that state had been drastically underestimated. Greenpeace estimates that the Indonesia fires will emit more carbon this year than the entire United Kingdom.

Land use, including peat and forest fires, accounts for 63 percent of Indonesia’s emissions. Indonesia is the sixth-largest emitter in the world, due almost entirely to land use. Indonesia has a moratorium in place on clearing “primary forests” (forests that have never been cleared or disrupted) and on converting peat bogs, an unusually effective type of carbon sink, which can release huge amounts of carbon when burned. Under its recently submitted emissions pledge to the United Nations, Indonesia said it will continue to reduce deforestation.

But that goal might be difficult to achieve. Indonesia has a long history of slash-and-burn agriculture. While technically illegal, the practice continues in the largely rural island nation, and experts have called for international intervention.

“You need to understand that the root cause of the fire is attributed largely on the social-economic issues,” Nirarta Samadhi, country director for the World Resources Institute, told Climate Home.

Press link for more: Samantha Page | ThinkProgress.org

CLIMATE CHANGE, CAPITALISM AND CORPORATIONS#Auspol

On Tuesday last week at RMIT in Melbourne, leading public intellectual and La Trobe University Emeritus Professor, Robert Manne launched our new book Climate Change, Capitalism and Corporations. We are indebted to Robert for agreeing to launch our book, as he has been one of the most articulate and considered commentators confronting the issue of climate change and its poisoned political legacy.
Robert’s regular analyses of climate politics had a deep impact on my own thinking about the climate crisis. In particular, I remember having started the research that would result in our book back in 2010, reading one of Robert’s insightful analyses of the political impasse over climate change in The Monthly magazine during a trip to Europe. As the train hurtled through the countryside between Frankfurt and Amsterdam, I looked up from the article to see row upon row of wind turbines turning in the late afternoon sunlight; the contrast with fossil fuel addicted Australia couldn’t have been more obvious.

Climate change is the most daunting problem humankind has ever faced. The problem can be outlined most economically in this way. Forty years ago climate scientists reached agreement that the temperature of the Earth was increasing primarily as a result of the carbon dioxide released by the burning of fossil fuels. Since that time, despite all the words and actions, the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has risen every year. Climate scientists tell us that climate change will eventually destroy the human- and species-friendly Earth. In the face of looming catastrophe how can our paralysis be explained?

  

Economists, political scientists, international relations scholars, sociologists, psychologists, philosophers have all tried their hands at solving the puzzle. Recently however a radical kind of explanation has grown in influence. According to it, our paralysis is explained by the character of the unrivalled, hegemonic, unchallenged, unchallengeable, triumphalist form of political economy in the contemporary age: globalised capitalism. For the first time since the Great Depression, because of the climate crisis, questions about the viability of what I call “really existing capitalism” have insinuated themselves into mainstream intellectual debate. The fine book by Christopher Wright and Daniel Nyberg belongs to this trend.
Unpacked, there are three different but interconnected dimensions to contemporary capitalism in Wright and Nyberg’s analysis. The first dimension is neo-liberalism or market fundamentalism, the ideology associated with Hayek and the Chicago school, in which faith in the magical capacity of the market to solve our problems for us, and hostility to state intervention and regulation, are at the core. The second dimension is what Naomi Klein calls extractivism, an idea which combines the ceaseless quest for resources, most fundamentally fossil fuels, with an associated philosophic disposition that asserts and celebrates “mankind’s mastery over nature”. The third dimension analysed by Wright & Nyberg is the neo-Marxist claim—associated with the “treadmill of production” school—that contemporary capitalism rests upon the following contradiction. Human beings and all other forms of life depend on the natural world. However in its requirement for never-ending growth, without which it would collapse, capitalism degrades and gradually destroys ever larger parts of nature. Because of greenhouse gas emissions and the problem of climate change, what was once a “tension” between the capitalist economy and the natural world, they argue, has become a full blown “contradiction”.
The core argument of this book can be summarised in this way. Capitalism, now fully globalised, cannot survive without never-ending growth. That growth presently relies on the energy supplied by burning fossil fuels. Despite the fact that we now know that the emissions produced by burning these fuels are destroying the qualities of the Earth on which our well-being depends, the quest for ever more fossil fuels—for oil from tar sands or under the waters of the Arctic, for coal seam or shale gas produced by the fracking process—continues remorselessly, without resistance from governments or the international community. The most fundamental explanation for this apparently suicidal behaviour is the fact that we are in the grip of what Wright and Nyberg call the neo-liberal capitalist imaginary, an idea best captured by Frederick Jameson’s famous remark that it is easier for us to imagine the end of the world than it is to imagine the end of capitalism. Because of the grip that the neo-liberal imaginary has over us, the only solutions that we consider are those offered by capitalism and the market.
According to Kevin Anderson, the terrifying climate scientist whose calculations Wright & Nyberg include, we need an annual ten per cent cut in the emissions of advanced economies, if we are to hold the increase in temperature to the globally agreed two degrees above the pre-industrial level. Rather than accept the idea that the steady accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions requires us to leave most fossil fuels under the ground, and, even more deeply, signals an end to the illusion of never-ending economic growth—those in the grip of the neo-liberal capitalist imaginary delude themselves that putting a price on carbon—through market-inspired ‘cap and trade’ schemes or maybe a modest carbon tax—will enable a slow transition to renewable energy and growth to continue forever. Rather than accepting that the socio-psychological root of the problem resides in part in the contemporary consumer culture, those within the grip of the neo-liberal capitalist imaginary assure us, as the authors put it, that the answer to the problem of over-consumption is even more consumption, and that the answer to the problem created by capitalism is even more capitalism.
How has such bad thinking captured us? The authors stress the political “power and the agency” of the capitalist corporations, in particular those dealing in fossil fuels. One of the earliest manifestations of their political power was the funding of the denialist movement in the United States that has now succeeded in converting one of the major parties to climate change denial. Another manifestation has been the corporations’ lobbying activity that has destroyed even market-based solutions, as in the cases of the “cap and trade’’ bills before the US Congress or the carbon tax/emissions trading legislation in Australia.
More interesting to them however is the role of what they call “corporate environmentalism” in closing our eyes to the impending climate change tragedy. Corporate environmentalism converts the climate change problem into a business opportunity. As Richard Branson once put it: “Our only hope to stop climate change is to make money from it.” It argues that apparently damaging aspects of corporate behaviour are in reality human-friendly. Peabody tells the world its concern in extracting and selling coal is Third World poverty. Corporate environmentalism creates alibis for its pursuit of profit at the Earth’s expense, like the perennial fantasy of carbon capture and storage with the burning of coal or the largely useless offset schemes, the equivalent of medieval indulgences, offered by the airline corporations to salve the consciences of their customers. In order to promote the myth of good corporate citizenship, supposedly green products are created; supposedly green behaviour encouraged inside company offices. Corporations advertise their carbon footprint to combat reputational risk, even those, like Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, whose most reliable profits come from Fox News, the most influential source of denialist propaganda in the United States. Wright & Nyberg tell the unedifying story of how British Petroleum temporarily re-branded itself Beyond Petroleum, spending hundreds of millions of dollars advertising its new image while investing remarkably little in renewable energy.
As part of their research into corporate environmentalism, Wright & Nyberg interviewed many of the often genuinely climate change-conscious managers and environmental specialists now employed by the corporations. If they are to influence behaviour, in general their task is to show how profitability and environmental responsibility align, and to guard against displaying any sign of ideological zealotry, lest their influence be even further reduced. Those in corporations concerned about climate change—the “outsiders within”—frequently express what they truly believe only in private. Their emotions are “compartmentalised”; they suffer from a condition the authors call “emotional dissonance”. Those genuinely concerned about their work sometimes are left with no option but to leave their firm. Very occasionally, someone associated with capitalism experiences a moment of epiphany, like the venture capitalist, John Doerr, who addressed a TED conference in tears.
“The myth of corporate environmentalism” is linked in the authors’ argument with what they call “the myth of corporate omnipotence”. What is vital here is the claim that, with regard to the looming tragedy of climate change, it is only neo-liberal capitalism that is capable of finding a solution. Suggestions outside that frame are characterised as “antediluvian, Luddite, reactionary” or even “tantamount to treason”. A key theme of the book is the capacity of capitalism to incorporate critique. In one of the authors’ nice phrases, under contemporary neo-liberal capitalism, critique is not censored but rendered rather, “naïve and forlorn”. “Such”, they argue towards the book’s conclusion “is the strength of the extant capitalist imaginary: any alternative is easily disdained, scorned, laughed off as utopian or dystopian. And in many ways this is our most crushing tragedy: not content with hastening our planet’s ruination, we can barely countenance an alternative path.” The authors quote with approval Elizabeth Kolbert’s devastating description of the trajectory of the world. “It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing.” Echoing Joseph Schumpeter, they provide a telling name for contemporary neo-liberal capitalism’s suicidal trajectory: “creative self-destruction”.
Of course Wright & Nyberg are aware of, and do discuss briefly, the attempts that have been made to provide these often shunned alternative paths and to bring humankind to its senses: the championing of a swift transition to renewable energy; proposals for tough anti neo-liberal regulation and legislation; the theorising of steady state, non-growth economies; and the major political oppositional strategies, Naomi Klein’s Blockadia and Bill McKibben’s astonishingly rapidly growing fossil fuels divestment movement. Even more briefly, they outline what is needed if a human- and species-friendly Earth is to be saved: a new relationship to the natural world; new forms of language; an enlivened understanding and practice of political democracy; the radical de-commodification of the environment; a green identity not linked to consumption; and what they call the “championing” of “the positive emotionality of climate action”.
Yet despite these concluding words, it is undeniable that on balance this is a deeply pessimistic book. Frequently, the authors tell us, they are asked: why is your outlook so bleak? To this reprimand, with which many of us are familiar, there is and can be only one answer. Unless we tell the whole truth, according to our best understanding, the struggle to save what Pope Francis calls our common home has no chance of succeeding. What would the critics of the pessimists recommend? Half-truths or untruths perhaps, evasions or obfuscations?
In this honest, intelligent but above all courageous book, Christopher Wright and Daniel Nyberg have sought at all times to tell the disturbing truth as they understand it about capitalism, corporations and the climate. In the dedication to this book, the authors’ children are named. Usually such dedications are conventional. In the case of climate change, where the current generation is feasting splendidly at the expense of generations in the future, it has a special meaning.
I am sincerely pleased to have been asked to launch this important book. And of course I wish it well.

Press link for more: climatepeopleorg.wordpress.com

Understanding climate feedbacks #Auspol 

Significantly positive
Human activities, most notably those causing increases in the concentration of carbon dioxide, are changing the climate. On the current trajectory of carbon emissions, very substantial  climate are predicted by the end of the century.
If the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide has no knock-on effects, calculating the size of those changes would be straightforward. If we doubled the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial levels, the Earth’s temperature would eventually balance out about 1.2C warmer.

But reality is somewhat more complicated. Once the Earth begins to warm, it triggers other processes on the surface and in the atmosphere. These are climate feedbacks. “Positive” feedbacks will strengthen the warming, while “negative” ones will weaken it. The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the combined effects of all feedbacks is likely to be significantly positive.
Uncertainty around the magnitude of these feedbacks is the main reason scientists use a range rather than an exact figure when estimating how much the Earth will warm up in the future, even when we prescribe the carbon emissions. And it’s not just global temperature they affect – they also play a key role in regional climate, too.

  
Sunset at Vatnfjorden, Norway. © Sonja Jordan/imageBROKER/Corbis.

Some climate feedbacks kick in quickly as temperatures go up. These “fast” feedbacks involve changes in water vapour, clouds and sea ice extent.
As temperatures rise, more water evaporates from the Earth’s surface and is present in the atmosphere. As water is itself a greenhouse gas, higher concentrations in the atmosphere have a warming effect, creating a positive feedback. This process is well understood by scientists.
One example of a negative feedback is caused by changes in the rate that temperature falls the higher you go in the atmosphere. When the climate warms, it is expected that different altitudes warm by different amounts. The dominant change is in the tropics, where the upper troposphere should warm faster than the surface. This causes more heat to be lost than would be expected under uniform warming, so this “lapse-rate” feedback is negative.
More water vapour in the air will also affect the number and type of clouds that form. Here it gets more complicated: depending on their type and altitude, clouds can have a warming or cooling effect on the Earth.
How these effects balance out remains the major source of uncertainty in scientists’ projections for near-term climate change.
There have been great advances in understanding how different cloud types respond to change. But compared to the units of space in a model of global climate, individual clouds are very small, so it is difficult to represent all the cloud processes that scientists know about. In our Royal Society special issue, Christopher Bretherton’s paper looks into the latest science on this topic.
Another fast feedback is changing sea ice and snow cover on land. Bright white ice and snow reflect a large portion of the Sun’s energy that hits the Earth’s surface – they have a high albedo. If sea ice and snow melt away, they leave behind a darker surface of ocean or soil, which reflect less energy, causing the surface to warm further.
This positive feedback is a crucial component in producing the biggest regional contrast in the response to climate change: Arctic amplification. Declining sea ice is causing the Arctic to warm twice as quickly as the global average. Scientists have tentatively linked the rapidly-warming Arctic to extreme weather in mid-latitude countries, such as the UK, US and Russia.
Warmer temperatures could also cause permafrost soils across the Arctic to thaw, with the potential to release their vast stores of organic carbon. Charles Koven and colleagues tackle this issue in their paper.

  
Thawing permafrost on the Tundra of Wrangel Island. © Jenny E. Ross/Corbis.
Longer timescales
Of course, some feedbacks take a little longer to make their presence felt. For example, the growth and contraction of vast ice sheets has been a major climate feedback from one ice age to the next throughout Earth’s long history. The albedo effect applies in the same way as for sea ice, but changes in these vast blankets of ice don’t happen as quickly.
There are good reasons to suppose there is a temperature threshold beyond which the loss of much of the Greenland ice sheet becomes inevitable. The future of the West Antarctic ice sheet is also uncertain, and because much of it sits below sea level, the ice sheet is vulnerable to warmer oceans as well as higher air temperatures. While changes in sea level will play out over millennia, actions taken or avoided in this century might commit the planet to seeing them happen.
Feedbacks triggered by rising carbon dioxide can also occur within the carbon cycle itself – a topic covered by Pierre Friedlingstein in his paper. More than half of manmade carbon emissions are currently absorbed by the ocean and the land biosphere. However, as the oceans warm, their capacity to store carbon could diminish. Likewise, how much carbon dioxide that trees, plants and soils can absorb is likely to be different in a warmer world. It is clear that positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle have been very important for the change from ice ages to warmer periods.
Finally, in modern times there is a new kind of feedback: humans. We are, in effect, a whole category of our own. How we change – or don’t change – our behavior in response to climate change will play a major role determining in the scale of global temperature rise in the coming decades and centuries.
Climate sensitivity
Scientists use three parallel lines of study to estimate the strength of feedbacks.
First, there are studies that aim to uncover how different feedbacks actually work. These contribute the detailed knowledge scientists need to improve climate models. Second, there are modelling studies that show how the different feedbacks combine to affect global climate. And, third, there is research into Earth’s past that provides examples of how the climate has responded to natural forcings, such as volcanic eruptions, or natural emissions of greenhouse gases.
Scientists have greatly improved understanding of many of the major feedback processes that have affected past, and will affect future, climate change. Quantifying the magnitude of the major feedbacks is still difficult, however. So, for the time being, scientists will still present climate projections as a wide range, but we’re working on making it narrower.

Press link for more: Prof. Eric Wolff | carbonbrief.org

Perth’s water worries: how one of the driest cities is fighting climate change. 

Perth the capital of Western Australia, is not only one of the most isolated cities in the world, it is also becoming one of the driest in Australia. 

Since the gold rush of the 1890s, impressive engineering schemes have transported enough water to make Perth a city of lush lawns and eye-catching flowerbeds, to the surprise of some visitors.
But a drop in average annual rainfall in recent years, along with some truly dire climate change projections, have required government and business to focus on water security. Australia’s Climate Council estimates that water flow from rainfall into Perth’s dams has slumped by 80% since the 1970s, with precipitation in the south-west corner of Australia forecast to drop by up to 40% by the end of the century. 
Coping with climate change

Last year, Perth’s dams received just 72.4bn litres of water – far less than the 300bn currently demanded by Perth’s two million-strong population. A huge desalination facility, completed in 2006, has helped make up this shortfall, but behavioural and technological change is also bridging the gap.

Western Australia’s Water Corporation, a government agency, works with every business in the state that uses more than 20m litres of water a year to make savings. The Water Efficiency Management plan, introduced as part of a range of mandatory water efficiency measures that apply to all sectors of the community, provides businesses with free training, help in data-gathering, and a certification scheme that allows them to promote themselves as water-conscious companies.
If they don’t meet certain requirements, however, they are at risk of fines and will be ineligible for the recognition scheme. A total of 330 businesses have reportedly saved enough water to fill the equivalent of 20,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools since the Water Corporation started this project in 2007.
Garden City Shopping Centre, for example, has started using acoustic listening equipment to locate pipe leaks, helping to reducing water use by 10%, while the Crown Promenade hotel has cut its water use by 25% by reducing the flow of its taps and installing dual-flush toilets, among other things, according to Water Corporation.
Perth’s largest theme park, Adventure World, checks water levels and pressure using real-time monitoring. If a leak is detected, maintenance to resolve the problem can be quickly deployed. Around 30m litres of water have been saved in the past two years this way.

“When we put a new water attraction in, people are asking questions on social media about how much water we’re using. There’s a lot of scrutiny on us,” says Ross Ogilvie, general manager of operations at Adventure World. “Everyone in Perth is well aware of the need to save water.”
Adventure World has installed two new filters, at A$100,000 (£46,700) a piece, saving 30,000 litres of water a day in peak season. Ogilvie says it will take up to five years for the filters to pay for themselves, but that it’s an easy business decision.

“It’s a corporate social responsibility issue, really. We need to save water,” he says. “Every induction of [new staff members] we have we talk about water efficiency, we ask people to report every leaky tap. I think people have come to accept that now.”

Awareness and action

The years of drought have changed attitudes among Perth’s public, as well as its businesses. Despite a rising population, water consumption has fallen from 191,000 litres to 131,000 litres per capita per year over the past decade in the Australian city. In comparison, for example, San Diego’s consumption is an estimated 249,000 litres per capita per year.
“There is more awareness of the issue. When you compare it to somewhere like San Diego, I’d say Perth is well ahead,” says Professor Anas Ghadouani, regional executive director of the CRC for Water Sensitive Cities. “California seems to be shocked when there is a drought, whereas in Perth people are more aware of where water comes from. There’s a focus on diversity of sources that doesn’t surprise people now. The idea of drinking recycled wastewater is not a crazy idea to Perth people any more.”
The Water Corporation is embracing a technology that also provides drinking water to Disneyland in California: groundwater replenishment. This process, where treated wastewater is pumped into an underground aquifer to be reused as drinking water, has undergone a trial near Perth and is expected to fully roll out next year.

“The advanced water recycling plant can be expanded to produce 28bn litres of water each year when required,” a Water Corporation spokeswoman says. “Groundwater replenishment could supply up to 20% of Perth’s drinking water needs by 2060.”
Such work will only become more urgent as Perth dries further. Climate change will not be kind to the city, nor to the famed Margaret River winemaking region to its south.
“Things are going to get a lot worse for Perth,” says David Karoly, climate scientist at Melbourne University. “They are already seeing the impact of reduced rainfall, and the future will see an additional doubling of the decline they’ve already seen.
“The only way for Perth to continue as a city is to find alternative water sources because a further large decline in rainfall will mean they won’t have enough water to supply their current population.”

Press link for more: Oliver Milman | theguardian.com

SALT FOUNDER: ‘WE NEED A NEW WORLD ORDER’ #Auspol

The traditional capitalism model is broken. We must rise up and embrace a more conscious and equitable economy before it’s too late, writes Stephen Vasconcellos-Sharpe. 
It’s no longer news to suggest that capitalism as we know it is in crisis. Understandably, we were all caught off guard by the events that unfolded eight years ago. The sheer scale of the losses borne by the markets since – estimated to be around US$15 trillion dollars – has hobbled the market’s efforts to regain its composure, regardless of the many additional trillions artificially pumped into the system by central banks the world over. We have bought ourselves an uneasy truce. The system limps on. But what if, out of all of the chaos and devastation of the last decade, we are sitting on the greatest opportunity of our age?
Of course, the numbers mask a much bigger human cost. The ILO and Red Cross suggest that up to 40 million jobs were lost by 2012 with one billion people left undernourished. At the same time the OECD recorded a fall of 20 per cent in the standard of living in Greece, with a 12 per cent fall in Spain and 10 per cent in Italy respectively. Not surprisingly, political instability has also increased, with the rise of the Podemos and Syriza government in Europe and the surprise success of UKIP and the SNP in the UK.
Capitalism as we know it has begun to enter into a dangerous new phase. But not everyone is suffering. Perversely, the rich are getting richer, which poses significant challenges to stability.
With one per cent of the world now owning more than all the rest combined, the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde is under no illusions about the risks to the system: “One of the leading economic stories of our time is rising income inequality, and the dark shadow it casts across the global economy.”
This trend of concentrating wealth in the hands of the few continues unabated: 85 of the world’s richest men own more than the poorest half combined. But the elite now wants change as much as anyone else – even if it’s mainly driven by self-preservation.
Few critics have been more outspoken about the need for change than the activist Pope Francis, who went as far as labelling unbridled capitalism the “dung of the devil.” Addressing a recent rally in Bolivia the Pope did not mince his words : “Let us not be afraid to say it: we want change, real change, structural change.”
A critical juncture
Politics aside, now that the global economy is consuming 1.5 times the bio-capacity of our home planet, we are running out of time to find the kind of solutions necessary to guarantee our survival as a species on earth.You don’t have to be an accounting whizz or have a PhD in science to conclude that the current trajectory does not bode well for mankind or the environment. Ecological disaster looms.
It is important to recognise at this stage that the economic system we participate in is the result of human choices, and not one that is necessarily natural per se –it is merely a construct, or rather a series of constructs, built on assumptions and preferences.
A healthy economy should be judged on its ability to deliver wellbeing for all people, and respect for nature and the environment. That’s where we have gone awry. In a global economy worth US$65 trillion, a mere US$15bn is spent on corporate social responsibility (CSR). Yet the true cost of the environmental degradation visited on the planet by corporations is more than US$2.2tn according to a UN report published in 2012. Historically many companies have bolted on CSR strategies for public relations purposes. It’s clear, business has a lot to answer for.
Within this context, companies now face a stark choice; continue an unrelenting focus on profit at all costs without any concern for human and environmental impacts, or recognise that we have come to the end of this cycle of every man for himself capitalism, and commit to building institutions that can combine profit with delivering meaningful impact.
Businesses must take the lead
Some of the brightest and most innovative minds are employed in the private sector, which, in turn, manages much of the world’s greatest resources. The opportunities are immense. Entrepreneurs and the corporations they run can be part of the solution too. Indeed many are already taking a lead.
The view of this writer is that we are on the verge of a brave new world. This transition may be fraught with challenges which we will work out along the way, but I firmly believe that business can and will adapt.
Firstly, we need to take some big decisions. What sort of economy do we want to build? One based purely on profit and self-enrichment, that exploits labour, ravages and poisons the environment and is heavily geared towards the waging of perpetual or regular wars? Or one inspired by creating the highest possible good, where every institution is guided by a mission and values and its core focus is delivering the greatest possible impact?
In his book, ‘Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future’, Paul Mason argues that the post-capitalist era has already begun. Whether or not we are in the post capitalist era or not is a moot point but there is no doubt that there are new types of businesses emerging, responding to the overwhelming need for change.
Indeed technology, and the demo- cratisation of information in particular is already encouraging innovative new collaborative models such as Wikipedia which has consigned the encyclopedia business the way of the dodo. Alongside this a more socially aware millennial generation is ushering in a new wave of social enterprises, many of which look like traditional businesses, and are profit generating, but driven by a social or environmental mission.
Environmental considerations, and the drift towards a post-carbon future are big factors shaping buying decisions and renewed localism as the wider economy embarks on a journey to become fully circular and zero waste.
Clearly, we cannot all continue to consume 1.5 times the biocapacity of the planet for much longer and the new economics and next generation business must respect the limits of the planet. Economies such as the US, built largely on their own consumption must reform.
New beginnings
A few multinationals such as Unilever and fashion holding Kering (Puma and others) are undertaking wholesale root and branch transformations and pioneering on a grand scale, although these are notable for their rarity. The really big change is happening on a much smaller scale. Consumers are getting more savvy about buying locally and supporting community businesses. As a result a new offer is emerging to respond to this demand. Communities meanwhile are learning to work better together, as evidenced in the transition town movement, and local currencies such as the Brixton Pound.
These developments, while lacking in coordination, and at a very early stage, indicate the emergence of a new way of thinking. The last 200 years has brought tremendous growth and generated incredible wealth and opportunity. But capitalism as we know it, driven by the relentless pursuit of profit at all costs, has run its course.
In its place a new more enlightened, mission-led capitalism is gaining traction. I see this as a natural evolution. The next decade will usher in a new grown up and fully conscious capitalism. And with it will come a new generation of compassionate business. Companies with purpose and heart will be at the vanguard of our new economy.
Stephen Vasconcellos-Sharpe is the founder and publisher of Salt.

ENVIRONMENTAL TRACKING: COULD IT TRANSFORM THE WORLD ECONOMY? #Auspol

Sam Gill, CEO of ET Index, a company helping investors understand, manage and reduce carbon risk, makes a case for the transformational potential of environmental tracking.
Investing in carbon intensive companies is acknowledged to be both ethically and financially risky. As Carbon Tracker helpfully highlighted, the risk of a multi-trillion dollar ‘carbon bubble’ in the financial markets is real, over four-fifths of current known fossil fuel reserves will need to stay underground to prevent temperature rises going beyond 2C.
As the debate around fossil fuel divestment reveals, shareholders – aware that the future of our world is hanging in the balance – are increasingly demanding a wholesale transformation of the real economy and capital markets to avert catastrophe. But while the moral and financial cases begin to align – the business case for incorporating sustainability into investment decisions in order to maximise long-term financial performance is robust – this has yet to materialise into large-scale concrete action in the financial sector.
A number of providers are proffering ‘carbon-tilted’ equity indexes which are designed to help investors reduce their exposure to carbon risk. While these redefine risk to reflect the value at risk from potential stranded assets in clients’ portfolios based on the probability of future scenarios, these mechanisms do not, however, harness the power of the financial system to address the new realities of the 21st century and meet the needs of investors.
Environmental tracking
Environmental Tracking is a systemic solution that aims to align investors’ financial interests with real climatic impacts by tying share price to carbon emissions. Underpinned by a public carbon ranking, a chosen benchmark, such as the FTSE 100, can be ‘tilted’ in accordance with the carbon emissions of each company in the chosen universe. For companies, the only way to move up the ranking is to lower their emissions and pressure companies operating within their supply chains to do the same, in turn gaining a greater weighting in the index and therefore a greater share of investment from those tracking the index.
A win-win solution
From an investor’s point of view the mechanism is a win-win solution; not only does it significantly reduce carbon exposure – Environmental Tracking Indexes offer tilts with over 25 per cent, 50 per cent and 75 per cent carbon reduction – but closely tracks ‘traditional’ non-carbon adjusted index. Crucially it will protect investors from ‘carbon price shock’ as and when high carbon companies start to suffer in the transition to a low carbon economy. The mechanism is also built to incentivise disclosure of emissions data, with companies unwilling to disclose their emissions being ranked as equal to the worst performer in their sector.
Transformational
Adding supply-chain emissions to the equation makes the mechanism truly transformational, cascading these effects throughout the world economy. As companies face financial pressure to clean up their supply-chains, every company along the value chain must in turn respond to significantly cutting its own emissions. In this way financial incentives can come to serve the most immediate needs of humanity, rather than continuing to hamper the continued prospective survival of our species on this planet. The Environmental Tracking mechanism is designed to address carbon risks at an individual investor level and at the aggregate level, redirecting global capital flows. The transition index, for example, reduces a portfolio’s carbon intensity by over 75 per cent whilst closely tracking the market.
Engagement vs divestment
Environmental Tracking stands at the crux of the debate between engagement and divestment, arguably satisfying both needs. Not only do Environmental Tracking indexes actively engage with companies by directly influencing company share price, each index comes with a fossil free version for investors looking to divest completely from fossil fuel holdings. Carbon tilted indexes, done right, can create a significant emissions reduction, a focus on Scope 3, or supply-chain emissions whilst severely penalising sectors that produce highly carbon-intensive products – such as fossil fuels. The methodology not only allows for an evaluation of a company’s direct emissions, but makes it responsible for the life-cycle emissions of its product, be it a barrel of oil or an automobile.
Environmental Tracking is no silver bullet, but by combining divestment and shareholder engagement it is already putting pressure on actors in the financial system to credibly address climate change.

Press link for more: Sam Gill | wearesalt.org

Can capitalism evolve to address the climate crisis? #Auspol

There are two extremes in the debate over capitalism’s role in our present climate change problem. On the one hand, some people see climate change as the outcome of a consumerist market system run rampant. In the end, the result will be a call to replace capitalism with a new system that will correct our present ills with regulations to curb market excesses.
On the other hand, some people have faith in a free market to yield the needed solutions to our social problems. In the more extreme case, some see climate policy as a covert way for bigger government to interfere in the market and diminish citizens’ personal freedom.
Between these two extremes, the public debate takes on its usual binary, black-and-white, conflict-oriented, unproductive and basically incorrect form. Such a debate feeds into a growing distrust many have for capitalism.
A 2013 survey found that only 54% of Americans had a positive view of the term, and in many ways both the Occupy and Tea Party movements share similar distrust in the macro-institutions of our society to serve everyone fairly; one focuses its ire at government, the other at big business, and both distrust what they see as a cozy relationship between the two.
This polar framing also feeds into culture wars that are taking place in our country. Studieshave shown that conservative-leaning people are more likely to be skeptical of climate change, due in part to a belief that this would necessitate controls on industry and commerce, a future they do not want. Indeed, research has shown a strong correlation between support for free-market ideology and rejection of climate science. Conversely, liberal-leaning people are more likely to believe in climate change because, in part, solutions are consistent with resentment toward commerce and industry and the damage they cause to society.
This binary framing masks the real questions we face, both what we need to do and how we are going to get there. Yet there are serious conversations within management education, research and practice about the next steps in the evolution of capitalism. The goal is to develop a more sophisticated notion of the role of the corporation within society. These discussions are being driven not only by climate change, but concerns raised by the financial crisis, growing income inequality and other serious social issues.
The market’s rough edges
Capitalism is a set of institutions for structuring our commerce and interaction. It is not, as some think, some sort of natural state that exists free from government intrusion. It is designed by human beings in the service of human beings and it can evolve to the needs of human beings. As Yuval Levin points out in National Affairs, even Adam Smith argued that “the rules of the market are not self-legislating or naturally obvious. On the contrary, Smith argued, the market is a public institution that requires rules imposed upon it by legislators who understand its workings and its benefits.”
And, it is worth noting, capitalism has been quite successful. Over the past century, the world’s population increased by a factor of four, the world economy increased by a factor of 14 and global per capita income tripled. In that time, average life expectancy increased byalmost two-thirds due in large part to advances in medicine, shelter, food production and other amenities provided by the market economy.
Capitalism is, in fact, quite malleable to meet the needs of society as they emerge. Over time, regulation has evolved to address emergent issues such as monopoly power, collusion, price-fixing and a host of other impediments to the needs of society. Today, one of those needs is responding to climate change.
The question is not whether capitalism works or doesn’t work. The question is how it can and will evolve to address the new challenges we face as a society. Or, as Anand Giridharadas pointed out at the Aspen Action Forum, “Capitalism’s rough edges must be sanded and its surplus fruit shared, but the underlying system must never be questioned.”
These rough edges need be considered with the theories we use to understand and teach the market. In addition, we need to reconsider the metrics we use to measure its outcomes, and the ways in which the market has deviated from its intended form.
Homo economicus?
To begin, there are growing questions around the underlying theories and models used to understand, explain and set policies for the market. Two that have received significant attention are neoclassical economics and principal-agent theory. Both theories form the foundation of management education and practice and are built on extreme and rather dismal simplifications of human beings as largely untrustworthy and driven by avarice, greed and selfishness.
As regards neoclassical economics, Eric Beinhocker and Nick Hanauer explain:
“Behavioral economists have accumulated a mountain of evidence showing that real humans don’t behave as a rational homo economicus would. Experimental economists have raised awkward questions about the very existence of utility; and that is problematic because it has long been the device economists use to show that markets maximize social welfare. Empirical economists have identified anomalies suggesting that financial markets aren’t always efficient.”
As regards principal-agent theory, Lynn Stout goes so far to say that the model is quite simply “wrong.” The Cornell professor of business and law argues that its central premise – that those running the company (agents) will shirk or even steal from the owner (principal) since they do the work and the owner gets the profits – does not capture “the reality of modern public corporations with thousands of shareholders, scores of executives and a dozen or more directors.”
The most pernicious outcome of these models is the idea that the purpose of the corporation is to “make money for its shareholders.” This is a rather recent idea that began to take hold within business only in the 1970s and 1980s and has now become a taken-for-granted assumption.
If I asked any business school student (and perhaps any American) to complete the sentence, “the purpose of the corporation is to…” they would parrot “make money for the shareholder.” But that is not what a company does, and most executives would tell you so. Companies transform ideas and innovation into products and services that serve the needs of some segment of the market. In the words of Paul Pollman, CEO of Unilever, “business is here to serve society.” Profit is the metric for how well they do that.
The problem with the pernicious notion that a corporation’s sole purpose is to serve shareholders is that it leads to many other undesirable outcomes. For example, it leads to an increased focus on quarterly earnings and short-term share price swings; it limits the latitude of strategic thinking by decreasing focus on long-term investment and strategic planning; and it rewards only the type of shareholder who, in the words of Lynn Stout, is “shortsighted, opportunistic, willing to impose external costs, and indifferent to ethics and others’ welfare.”
A better way to gauge the economy
Going beyond our understanding of what motivates people and organizations within the market, there is growing attention to the metrics that guide the outcomes of that action. One of those metrics is the discount rate. Economist Nicholas Stern stirred a healthy controversy when he used an unusually low discount rate when calculating the future costs and benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation, arguing that there is a ethical component to this metric’s use. For example, a common discount rate of 5% leads to a conclusion that everything 20 years out and beyond is worthless. When gauging the response to climate change, is that an outcome that anyone – particularly anyone with children or grandchildren – would consider ethical?
Another metric is gross domestic product (GDP), the foremost economic indicator of national economic progress. It is a measure of all financial transactions for products and services. But one problem is that it does not acknowledge (nor value) a distinction between those transactions that add to the well-being of a country and those that diminish it. Any activity in which money changes hands will register as GDP growth. GDP treats the recovery from natural disasters as economic gain; GDP increases with polluting activities and then again with pollution cleanup; and it treats all depletion of natural capital as income, even when the depreciation of that capital asset can limit future growth.

A second problem with GDP is that it is not a metric dealing with true human well-being at all. Instead, it is based on the tacit assumption that the more money and wealth we have, the better off we are. But that’s been challenged by numerous studies.
As a result, French ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy created a commission, headed by Joseph Stieglitz and Amartya Sen (both Nobel laureates), to examine alternatives to GDP. Their report recommended a shift in economic emphasis from simply the production of goods to a broader measure of overall well-being that would include measures for categories like health, education and security. It also called for greater focus on the societal effects of income inequality, new ways to measure the economic impact of sustainability and ways to include the value of wealth to be passed on to the next generation. Similarly, the king of Bhutan has developed a GDP alternative called gross national happiness, which is a composite of indicators that are much more directly related to human well-being than monetary measures.
The form of capitalism we have today has evolved over centuries to reflect growing needs, but also has been warped by private interests. Yuval Levin points out that some key moral features of Adam Smith’s political economy have been corrupted in more recent times, most notably by “a growing collusion between government and large corporations.” This issue has become most vivid after the financial crisis and the failed policies that both preceded and succeeded that watershed event. The answers, as Auden Schendler and Mark Trexler point out, are both “policy solutions” and “corporations to advocate for those solutions.”
We can never have a clean slate
How will we get to the solutions for climate change? Let’s face it. Installing efficient LED light bulbs, driving the latest Tesla electric car and recycling our waste are admirable and desirable activities. But they are not going to solve the climate problem by reducing our collective emissions to a necessary level. To achieve that goal requires systemic change. To that end, some argue for creating a new system to replace capitalism. For example, Naomi Klein calls for “shredding the free-market ideology that has dominated the global economy for more than three decades.”
Klein is performing a valuable service with her call for extreme action. She, like Bill McKibben and his 350.org movement, is helping to make it possible for a conversation to take place over the magnitude of the challenge before us through what is called the “radical flank effect.”
All members and ideas of a social movement are viewed in contrast to others, and extreme positions can make other ideas and organizations seem more reasonable to movement opponents. For example, when Martin Luther King Jr first began speaking his message, it was perceived as too radical for the majority of white America. But when Malcolm X entered the debate, he pulled the radical flank further out and made King’s message look more moderate by comparison. Capturing this sentiment, Russell Train, second administrator of the EPA, once quipped, “Thank God for [environmentalist] Dave Brower; he makes it so easy for the rest of us to be reasonable.”
But the nature of social change never allows us the clean slate that makes sweeping statements for radical change attractive. Every set of institutions by which society is structured evolved from some set of structures that preceded it. Stephen Jay Gould made this point quite powerfully in his essay “The Creation Myths of Cooperstown,” where he pointed out that baseball was not invented by Abner Doubleday in Cooperstown New York in 1839. In fact, he points out, “no one invented baseball at any moment or in any spot.” It evolved from games that came before it. In a similar way, Adam Smith did not invent capitalism in 1776 with his book The Wealth of Nations. He was writing about changes that he was observing and had been taking place for centuries in European economies; most notably the division of labor and the improvements in efficiency and quality of production that were the result.
In the same way, we cannot simply invent a new system to replace capitalism. Whatever form of commerce and interchange we adopt must evolve out of the form we have at the present. There is simply no other way.
But one particularly difficult challenge of climate change is that, unlike Adam Smith’s proverbial butcher, brewer or baker who provide our dinner out of the clear alignment of their self-interest and our needs, climate change breaks the link between action and outcome in profound ways. A person or corporation cannot learn about climate change through direct experience. We cannot feel an increase in global mean temperature; we cannot see, smell or taste greenhouse gases; and we cannot link an individual weather anomaly with global climate shifts.
A real appreciation of the issue requires an understanding of large-scale systems through “big data” models. Moreover, both the knowledge of these models and an appreciation for how they work require deep scientific knowledge about complex dynamic systems and the ways in which feedback loops in the climate system, time delays, accumulations and nonlinearities operate within them. Therefore, the evolution of capitalism to address climate change must, in many ways, be based on trust, belief and faith in stakeholders outside the normal exchange of commerce. To get to the next iteration of this centuries-old institution, we must envision the market through all components that help to establish the rules; corporations, government, civil society, scientists and others.
The evolving role of the corporation in society
At the end of the day, the solutions to climate change must come from the market and more specifically, from business. The market is the most powerful institution on earth, and business is the most powerful entity within it. Business makes the goods and services we rely upon: the clothes we wear, the food we eat, the forms of mobility we use and the buildings we live and work in.
Businesses can transcend national boundaries and possess resources that exceed that of many countries. You can lament that fact, but it is a fact. If business does not lead the way toward solutions for a carbon-neutral world, there will be no solutions.
Capitalism can, indeed it must, evolve to address our current climate crisis. This cannot happen through either wiping clean the institutions that presently exist or relying on the benevolence of a laissez faire market. It will require thoughtful leaders creating a thoughtfully structured market.

Press link for more: Andrew J. Hoffman | agenda.weforum.org

A call to action on food systems and climate change #Auspol

September 30, 2015 — Researchers and policy makers must take steps to address air pollution, climate change, and other environmental issues related to crop and livestock production that, left unchanged, could one day severely impact the world’s food supply and human health, K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India and adjunct professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told an audience September 25, 2015 at the School.
“We live in a world where food systems are threatening the environment and environmental degradation from a variety of sources is threatening food systems. This will get worse if we don’t change,” said Reddy, who presented the 2015 Milton J. Rosenau Lecture in Kresge G2. The talk, “Health in the Era of Sustainable Development,” was sponsored by the Office of the Dean.

In his introduction, Acting Dean David Hunter said Reddy, an international leader in preventive cardiology, was an excellent choice for the lecture series, which is a critical part of the Research Strategy Review (RSR) that is underway to identify areas the School’s research program should target over the next 20 years. Reddy, has been a researcher, teacher, policy enabler, advocate, and activist who has worked to promote cardiovascular health, tobacco control, chronic disease prevention, and healthy living across the lifespan. The former head of the Department of Cardiology at All India Institute of Medical Sciences, he was appointed the First Bernard Lown Visiting Professor of Cardiovascular Health at Harvard Chan School in 2009.
“Air pollution is the world’s single greatest environmental pollution health risk,” Reddy said. Annually 3.3 million globally die prematurely from outdoor pollution, mostly fine-particle air pollution, and the number is projected to double by 2050 to 6.6 million if emissions continue to rise, he said. Three billion people cook with solid biomass fuels, he said, contributing to many air pollution deaths in Asia, Africa, and other nations.
Scientists must figure out how to grow nutrient-rich crops that are able to withstand the higher temperatures anticipated as part of climate change and that can tolerate reduced water supplies, said Reddy. By 2050, as a result of climate change, crop and livestock production is expected to fall 2% per decade while demand for food is projected to grow 14% per decade due to population growth and other factors. By 2100, 40% of the world’s land surface will have altered climates. “It’s not just global warming, it’s global harming,” Reddy said, referencing increased storms and flooding in Asia and other parts of the world that he said are linked to climate change.
One of the actions that he recommended, which he dubbed “climate-smart,” was to focus on promoting diverse, high-quality, healthy diets. He said new metrics are needed to measure diet quality, actual food intake, and measure food system efficiency and sustainability. He also called for new policies to reduce food waste. About one-third of food worldwide is wasted, he said.

Press link for more: hsph.harvard.edu