Agricultural risks associated with extreme event and climate and economic risks—
In the agriculture sector typical risks are yield losses due to bad weather, pests and diseases; post-harvest losses during storage and transport; unexpectedly low market prices, as well as further supply chain issues, affecting logistics and food security across many parts of the world.
The IPCC’s Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC, 2012) illustrates past and projected impacts across different regions, for example:
Africa is particularly exposed, as 50 per cent of its total export value is based on agriculture.
As an example, the projections of climate change impacts for Namibia indicate annual losses of 1 to 6 per cent of GDP by 2050, with livestock production, traditional agriculture, and fishing expected to be hardest hit, with a combined loss of USD 461 to 2,045 million per year by 2050.
In New Zealand, the 1997-1998 severe drought conditions across large areas led to losses estimated at NZD 750 million (2006 values) or 0.9 per cent of GDP.
For Asia about 15 per cent (23 million ha) of Asian rice areas already experienced frequent yield loss due to drought.
Future projections indicate increase in heat wave frequency and duration and increasing dryness for some U.S. regions.
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