Worldwide Protests to demand companies cease financing new coal. #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani #ClimateChange

By Asian Peoples Movement on Debt & Development

Manila, Philippines –Members of the Asian Peoples Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD), the Philippine Movement for Climate Justice (PMCJ), the women’s group Oriang,and Sanlakas are holding protest actions today in front of the Makati offices of Mizuho Bank Ltd. and Marubeni Corp. as shareholders of these institutions respectively hold their regular meeting in Japan.

The groups are demanding that both Japanese companies cease financing of new coal projects.

“Financiers of coal projects, the dirtiest among the fossil fuels that largely cause climate change, must be taken to task for their critical roles in climate change.

In particular, Japanese banks and corporations like Mizuho and Marubeni must heed the world-wide clamor to put an end to coal energy,” said Lidy Nacpil of APMDD.

“Climate change-related disasters are becoming more severe and more frequent, devastating cities and communities in many parts of the world.

Developing countries like the Philippines suffer harshly from the onslaught of disasters.

People’s livelihoods and support systems are washed away by powerful storms and typhoons,” added Ian Rivera, PMCJ Coordinator.

Oriang Spokesperson Flores Zacate stressed that women are even more vulnerable to climate change impacts as they bear the multiple burdens of earning a living as well as carrying out traditional roles of  house work and caring for the young and elderly members of their family. “We cannot continue to live in risky situations and worsening threats to the survival and security of our families.

The expansion of the coal industry must stop and coal projects must be phased out as soon as possible”,  she said.

According to APMDD Coordinator Lidy Nacpil, the Mizuho Financial Group is one of the major financiers of coal projects in Asia.

It is involved in the financing of the 2,000-megawatt Batang Project in Java, Indonesia – Southeast Asia’s largest coal-fired power plant. “The project represents a dangerously misguided push for coal power that will further push Indonesia and the rest of the world towards the catastrophic path of climate change.”

Ian Rivera said that Mizuho supported two coal power plants in the Philippines-  the San Miguel Corporation Coal Plant in Limay, Bataan and the Ayala GNPower Coal Plant in Mariveles, Bataan.

It also supported the acquisition of the AES Masinloc by the San Miguel Corporation, which owns the proposed Masinloc Expansion Project in Zambales.

The Marubeni Corporations also among the top Asian investors in coal projects, according to Aaron Pedrosa of Sanlakas.  He said that Marubeni supported the Sual Coal Plant in Pangasinan and is financing the proposed expansion of the same plant.  It also supported the coal plant in Pagbilao, Quezon and is financing a new coal-fired power plant in Calaca, Batangas with a stake of $80 to 85 million. “Three years since the 2015 Paris Agreement when nearly 200 nations pledged to limit global temperature increase to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, Marubeni and others disappointingly continue to fund dirty energy, specifically coal,” Pedrosa lamented.

“The 1.5 degrees threshold is not just a number. It represents the fate of the 7.6 billion world population and the earth’s eco-system. Achieving or failing to achieve the 1.5 degrees mark will determine who will survive, how many islands will sink, who and how many will have food and shelter, what new diseases will threaten life,” Lidy Nacpil explained.

“Scientists have agreed and asserted that in order to keep temperature rise below 1.5 degrees, the world must fully de-carbonize not later than 2050.

This means we must complete the shift to 100% renewable energy way before 2050.

This is a huge transformation but we have no time to lose.

Financing of new coal and fossil fuels must stop now.

There must be a swift phase out of all existing coal and fossil fuel projects”, Lidy Nacpil concluded.

Press link for more: World.350.org

Fossil Free Steel #innovation for jobs & growth #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani #climateChange

HYBRIT: Construction start for Globally-unique Pilot Plant for creating Fossil-free steel

Today, the ground will be broken for HYBRIT’s world-first pilot plant for creating fossil-free steel, with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven as keynote speaker. SSAB, LKAB, and Vattenfall have, together with the Swedish Energy Agency, decided to invest SEK 1,4 billion in the pilot plant. This means that the HYBRIT initiative now enters its second phase. The goal is a fossil-free, ore-based steel production, on an industrial scale.

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven will today symbolically break the ground for the HYBRIT Pilot Plant in Luleå. The plant is expected to be ready by 2020. The initiative was given the green light this winter to proceed from feasibility study to pilot plant. The construction start means that the HYBRIT initiative is now entering its second phase, with possibilities of full-scale testing and development of the technique to produce steel by using hydrogen instead of coal and coke. This could lead to a historical shift in production technique, leading to water as a by-product instead of carbon dioxide emissions.

– By testing in pilot scale, we can leave the small-scale laboratory environment an instead mimic the coming industrial process, and prepare for efficient production. We are very happy to be able to enter the next phase and get one step closer to our target of fossil-free steel production, with all its environmental benefits, says Mårten Görnerup, CEO at HYBRIT.

HYBRIT has the potential to reduce Sweden’s total carbon dioxide emissions by ten percent, and Finland’s with seven percent. Moreover, HYBRIT has a global potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This historic technological shift has been described as crucial for Sweden to be able to achieve the goals set out in the Paris agreement.

HYBRIT is a joint venture company, owned by three companies, SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall, that aims to be first in the world to develop an industrial process for fossil-free, ore-based steel production. The project was initiated in spring 2016 and the goal is to have an industrial process in place by 2035.

HYBRIT has already been awarded financial support from the Swedish Energy Agency on three occasions, for two feasibility studies and one research project. Moreover, it was recently announced that the Swedish Energy Agency will contribute with SEK 528 million to the pilot plant, in which the three owning companies together will invest an additional SEK 830 million.

Fossil-free steel production starts in the mine, we are working intensely with how the future pelletizing plant should be constructed to find an energy efficient production process. The challenge for LKAB in HYBRIT, and our contribution, is to develop carbon dioxide free direct reduction pellets. This is where the pilot plant will play a crucial part, before we can take it to an industrial scale, says Jan Moström, President and CEO at LKAB.

– By starting to build the pilot plant, where we’ll develop and scale up the technology for fossil-free steel production, we’re taking an important step forwards towards SSAB’s goal of being fossil-free by 2045. We’re proud of being part of an important and challenging technological shift that can result in our solving part of the climate issue, says Martin Lindqvist, President and CEO at SSAB.

– Vattenfall wants to make it possible to live fossil-free within a generation. Helping steel production to change is one of the most important contributions we can give. By using our fossil-free electricity to large-scale production of hydrogen, we can enable technical shifts that will have a great impact on climate emissions, says Magnus Hall, President and CEO at Vattenfall.

Press link for more: MB.CISION.COM

Fossil Fuel Industry is weaker than ever. #auspol #qldpol #ClimateChange #StopAdani

Some rare good climate news: the fossil fuel industry is weaker than ever | Bill McKibben

Bill McKibbenThu 21 Jun 2018 20.00 AEST

From Wall Street to the pope, many increasingly see fossil fuels as anything but a sure bet.

That gives us reason to hope

The basic trajectory of the world away from coal and gas and oil is firmly underway.’ Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

If you’re looking for good news on the climate front, don’t look to the Antarctic. Last week’s spate of studies documenting that its melt rates had tripled is precisely the kind of data that underscores the almost impossible urgency of the moment.

And don’t look to Washington DC, where the unlikely survival of the EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt, continues to prove the political power of the fossil fuel industry. It’s as if he’s on a reality show where the premise is to see how much petty corruption one man can get away with.

But from somewhat less likely quarters, there’s been reason this month for hope – reason, at least, to think that the basic trajectory of the world away from coal and gas and oil is firmly under way.

At the Vatican, the pope faced down a conference full of oil industry executives – the basic argument that fossil fuel reserves must be kept underground has apparently percolated to the top of the world’s biggest organization.

And from Wall Street came welcome word that market perceptions haven’t really changed: even in the age of Trump, the fossil fuel industry has gone from the world’s surest bet to an increasingly challenged enterprise.

Researchers at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis minced no words: “In the past several years, oil industry financial statements have revealed significant signs of strain: Profits have dropped, cash flow is down, balance sheets are deteriorating and capital spending is falling.

The stock market has recognized the sector’s overall weakness, punishing oil and gas shares over the past five years even as the market as a whole has soared.”

The IEEFA report labeled the industry “weaker than it has been in decades” and laid out its basic frailties, the first of which is paradoxical.

Fracking has produced a sudden surge of gas and oil into the market, lowering prices – which means many older investments (Canada’s tar sands, for instance) no longer make economic sense.

Fossil fuel has been transformed into a pure commodity business, and since the margins on fracking are narrow at best, its financial performance has been woeful.

The IEEFA describes investors as “shell-shocked” by poor returns.

And the third problem for the fossil fuel industry?

That would be the climate movement

The second weakness is more obvious: the sudden rise of a competitor that seems able to deliver the same product – energy – with cheaper, cleaner, better technologies.

Tesla, sure – but Volkswagen, having come clean about the dirtiness of diesel, is going to spend $84bn on electric drivetrains.

China seems bent on converting its entire bus fleet to electric power.

Every week seems to bring a new record-low price for clean energy: the most recent being a Nevada solar plant clocking in at 2.3 cents per kilowatt hour, even with Trump’s tariffs on Chinese panels.

And the third problem for the fossil fuel industry?

According to IEEFA, that would be the climate movement – a material financial risk to oil and gas companies. “In addition to traditional lobbying and direct-action campaigns, climate activists have joined with an increasingly diverse set of allies – particularly the indigenous-rights movement – to put financial pressure on oil and gas companies through divestment campaigns, corporate accountability efforts, and targeting of banks and financial institutions.

These campaigns threaten not only to undercut financing for particular projects, but also to raise financing costs for oil and gas companies across the board.”

The Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project, 190 miles outside Las Vegas. Photograph: Pedro Alvarez for the Observer

Hey, the movement against Kinder Morgan’s pipeline got so big, the Canadian government had to literally buy the thing in order to try and ram it through. Protesters will die, a former Bank of Canada governor predicted this week – though he added the country will have to muster the “fortitude” to kill them and get the pipeline built.

For activists, the best part of the IEEFA report is a series of recommendations for precisely how to hurt the industry the most, from creating delays that “turn a marginal project into a cancelled one” to “strategic litigation” to “changing the narrative”.

The report’s authors write: “The financial world is just beginning to understand the fundamental weakness of the fossil fuel sector, and barely acknowledges the global climate movement’s growing power and reach.

This has created a powerful opportunity to develop and foster a new storyline on Wall Street: that the oil and gas industry is an unstable financial partner just as it faces its greatest test.”

That’s work we’re capable of. If a few years of campaigning is enough to convince the pope we need to keep fossil fuels in the ground, a few more quarters might finally persuade the suits that there’s more money to be made elsewhere. But speed is clearly of the essence. If massive losses of money loom over Wall Street, massive losses of polar ice loom over us all.

Bill McKibben is the Schumann Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College and the founder of the climate campaign 350.org

This article originally appeared in The Grist

Press link for more: The Guardian

NAIF backs Genex Power Kidston project. World 1st #Renewable energy 24/7 #auspol #qldpol #Solar #wind #PumpedHydro #ClimateChange #StopAdani

NAIF backs $1 Billion Genex Power Kidston project

Genex’s Kidston solar and pumped hydro plant at the old Kidston Gold Mine west of Townsville. Supplied

The Turnbull government’s $5 billion Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility has finally unlocked its coffers and flagged a significant funding allocation with a $516 million loan to Genex Power’s Kidston large-scale solar and hydro project in North Queensland.

Amid much criticism about the slow pace of NAIF allocating funding to big projects and a hasty redrafting of its investment guidelines, the NAIF announced on Wednesday it was giving conditional backing to the second stage of the much-hyped Genex Kidston project, which will use an old goldmine for a pumped-hydro project, supported by wind and solar projects.

The large indicative funding for a renewable project will further anger some Coalition backbenchers who have been agitating the Turnbull government to provide similar investment for coal-fired power projects as federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg attempts to push through the National Energy Guarantee by the end of the year.

It is the third loan from the NAIF – which was established two years ago – following a $16.8 million loan for a $120 million port project in Western Australia and $7 million for a barramundi farm in the Northern Territory.

Genex’s Kidston renewable project in North Queensland. Geoff Hunter

But the proposed Genex funding is the most significant investment decision so far from the NAIF and will be a significant leg-up for the listed Genex Power’s planned $1 billion renewables hub in North Queensland. The listed company’s share price closed almost 11 per cent higher on Thursday.

Loan is conditional

Genex said NAIF had agreed to an indicative term sheet for a long-term concessional debt facility of up to $516 million for the stage two of the Kidston project.

This will let them secure funding for the rest of the project and hopefully reach financial close by the end of the year.

But the secured, subordinated loan is subject to a string of conditions imposed by NAIF including Genex negotiating off-take arrangements and grid connection for their project; finishing a cost-benefit analysis, finalising terms for senior debt funding, securing the balance of equity funding and due diligence on a range of project matters.

The loan is still subject to final NAIF credit approval and the NAIF board’s investment decision.

But Genex Power chief executive James Harding said they were confident they could meet the conditions and reach financial close before the end of the year.

“The issuance of the term sheet and NAIF’s support to negotiate the detailed terms of a long tenor, concessional loan which would secure the bulk of the project debt funding is a significant milestone in the development of the project,” Mr Harding said in a statement to the ASX.

NAIF chief executive Laurie Walker said the NAIF support would help Genex secure financing for the rest of the project.

“This is a demonstration of how NAIF can work with stakeholders to help them understand how its concessional financing can support the development of a project which has the potential to provide substantial benefits to Northern Australia,” Ms Walker said.

“NAIF sees the projects as important for the transition of the market to lower emissions renewable energy sources and the board’s preparedness to consider a capital commitment of this size reflects the alignment of this type of project with NAIF’s objective to contribute to the transformation of Northern Australia through infrastructure development.”

$1b renewable hub

The conditional funding announcement for Genex will be a relief to Northern Australia Minister Matt Canavan, who was copping the brunt of the frustration about the slow pace of NAIF project assessment.

Senator Canavan said the likely Genex investment was a direct result of changes made in April when he ordered the overhauling of the investment mandate for the NAIF after an independent review found the mandate was too restrictive and holding back financial support for big projects in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

The key changes include the removal of the 50 per cent debt cap on funding for individual projects, a loosening of the gap test, broadening the definition of infrastructure and a fast-tracking of projects into the latter stages of the NAIF investment pipeline.

It is understood the $516 million indicative loan to Genex is significantly more than 50 per cent of the debt – and was able to be pushed through because of the change to the guidelines.

“This project will secure [electricity] supply for North Queensland. It would create 500 jobs in the construction phase,” he said.

Queensland Deputy Premier and Treasurer Jackie Trad said the NAIF funding was a “long time coming” since the $5 billion fund was announced three years ago and no money had yet flowed to Queensland.

“This would represent less than 20 per cent of money out the door at a time when we know regional Queensland does need a lot more attention and support from the federal government,” she said.

The Palaszczuk government has left the door open for NAIF funding for coal projects in the Galilee Basin, saying its veto was only for Adani’s controversial $16.5 billion Carmichael project. But Ms Trad noted there were no coal projects on the NAIF shortlist.

Genex, which has also received $18 million in funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, is attempting to build a $1 billion renewable energy hub based around an old gold mine, 400 kilometres west of Townsville.

This will include a $300 million, 250-megawatt pumped hydro project – which has been likened to a giant battey which will have 1500 megawatt hours storage capacity – a $420 million, 270-megawatt solar project and a 150-megawatt wind farm.

If it all goes ahead, it will be the first pumped hydro/solar/wind project in the world with a potential to run 24 hours a day.

Press link for more: AFR.COM

South-East Queensland is droughtier and floodier than we thought #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani #ClimateChange

South-East Queensland is droughtier and floodier than we thought.

Jack Coates-Marnane June 22, 2018 4.48am AEST

New data recording the past 1,500 years of flows in the Brisbane River have revealed that South-East Queensland’s climate – once assumed to be largely stable – is in fact highly variable.

Until now, we have only had access to 200 years of weather records in South-East Queensland. But our new research used marine sediment cores (dirt from the bottom of the ocean) to reconstruct stream flows and rainfall over past millennia.

This shows that long droughts and regular floods are both prominent features in South-East Queensland’s climate.

Brisbane flood

This is concerning.

Decisions about where we build infrastructure and how we use water have been based on the assumption that our climate – especially rainfall – is relatively stable.

Read more: Old floods show Brisbane’s next big wet might be closer than we think

Archives of past climates

Natural archives of climate are preserved within things such as tree rings, coral skeletons, ice cores, lake or marine sediments. Examining them lets us extend our climate records back beyond documented history.

We can then undertake water planning in the context of a longer record of climate, instead of our short-term instrumental records.

In this study, we used sediment cores from Moreton Bay (next to the mouth of the Brisbane River) to reconstruct the river’s flow over the past 1,500 years. In these cores we measured various indicators of fresh water to reconstruct a record of streamflow and regional rainfall.

At the turn of the last millennium the region was in the middle of a prolonged dry spell that lasted some six centuries, from roughly the year 600 to 1200. After about 1350 the region became gradually wetter, with peaks revealing a series of extreme floods in the late 1600s and early 1700s. Large floods in the 1700s have also been documented in the upper reaches of the catchment, in the Lockyer Valley.

These broad shifts in regional rainfall and streamflow are linked to drivers of global climates, including hemispheric cooling and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Read more: Explainer: El Niño and La Niña

A cool La Niña-dominant climate that persisted from roughly 1350 until 1750 caused increased rainfall and reduced evaporation.

In addition, the southward displacement of monsoon troughs at this time may have increased the likelihood of cyclone-related weather systems reaching southern Queensland.

This information helps us contextualise the climate of the last 200 years and gives us some insights into how regional rainfall responds to shifts in global climate.

Wet and dry extremes

Over the past 20 years, South-East Queensland has experienced its fair share of extreme weather events. Severe floods have caused deaths and damaged infrastructure. Flooding cost the Australian economy some A$30 billion in 2011.

Regular droughts may mean South-East Queensland needs to rethink water resource strategies. Shutterstock

The millennium drought, which in this region was most severe from 2003-08, resulted in widespread water shortages. This prompted major investment in the South-East Queensland Water Grid, a connected network of dams, water treatment plants, reservoirs, pump stations and pipelines.

So far Queensland has coped with everything Mother Nature has thrown at it. But what if extreme floods and droughts became the norm rather than the exception?

Read more: Floods don’t occur randomly, so why do we still plan as if they do?

Water quality is getting worse

The 2011 and 2013 floods highlighted the vulnerability to these extreme events of Brisbane’s major water treatment facility at Mt Crosby. The drinking water supply to the city in 2013 became too muddy for purification. The 2011 flood was also alarmingly muddy.

Such events also threaten the ecosystem health of downstream waterways, including the iconic Moreton Bay

Our reconstruction found that big floods over the past 1,500 years rivalled the size of floods in recorded history (1893, 1974 and 2011), but the level of sediment in the water of more recent floods seems to be unprecedented.

This indicates that historical and ongoing land-use changes in the Brisbane River catchment are contributing to more abrupt and erosive floods.

This will continue unless better land management techniques are adopted to improve the resilience of catchments to extreme weather events.

What does this mean for the future?

We are learning that over the last millennium natural climate and rainfall have been more variable than previously thought. This means that modern anthropogenic climate change may be exacerbated by a background of already high natural climate variability.

In addition, our water infrastructure has been built based on a narrow understanding of natural climate variability, limited to the last 200 years. This may mean the quantity of reliable long-term freshwater resources in eastern Australia has been overestimated.

Read more: Droughts & flooding rains: what is due to climate change?

Press link for more: The Conversation

Future We Don’t Want: Billions at risk of climate-related heatwaves, drought, flooding, food shortages #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani #ClimateChange

The Future We Don’t Want: Billions of urban citizens at risk of climate-related heatwaves, drought, flooding, food shortages and blackouts by 2050

New research reveals number of cities and citizens threatened by direct and indirect climate hazards if global greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked

Bold climate action by cities key to prevent 1.6 billion people being exposed to extreme heat; 800 million to coastal flooding and 650 million to droughts.

Download & explore the full research here.

Cape Town, South Africa (19 June 2018) — Billions of people in thousands of cities around the world will be at risk from climate-related heatwaves, drought, flooding, food shortages, blackouts and social inequality by mid-century without bold and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fortunately, cities around the world are delivering bold climate solutions to avert these outcomes and create a healthier, safer, more equal and prosperous future for all urban citizens.

New research from C40 Cities, Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) and Acclimatise predicts how many urban residents will face potentially devastating heat waves, flooding and droughts by 2050 if global warming continues on its current trajectory. The Future We Don’t Want – How climate change could impact the world’s greatest cities also looks at indirect climate impacts and estimates how climate change under a ‘business-as-usual scenario’ will impact urban food security and energy systems as well as the urban poor, who are most vulnerable to climate change.

Headline findings include that, by 2050

• 1.6 billion people living in over 970 cities, will be regularly exposed to extreme high temperatures.

• Over 800 million people, living in 570 cities, will be vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding.

• 650 million people, in over 500 cities, will be at risk of water shortages due to climate change.

• 2.5 billion people will be living in over 1,600 cities where national food supply is threatened by climate change.

• The power supply to 470 million people, in over 230 cities, will be vulnerable to sea level rise.

• 215 million poor urban residents, living in slum areas in over 490 cities, will face increasing climate risks.

The Future We Don’t Want – How climate change could impact the world’s greatest cities also contains concrete examples of bold climate solutions that cities are delivering, which, if adopted at-scale, could help prevent the worst impacts of climate change. The research was launched at the Adaptation Futures conference in Cape Town, where representatives of cities around the world are sharing ideas on how to prepare and adapt their cities for the effects of climate change.

“For decades, scientists have been warning of the risks that climate change will pose from increasing global temperatures, rising sea levels, growing inequality and water, food and energy shortages. Now we have the clearest possible evidence of just what these impacts will mean for the citizens of the world’s cities, said Mark Watts, Executive Director C40 Cities. “This is the future that nobody wants. Our research should serve as a wake-up call on just how urgently we need to be delivering bold climate action.”

“For most C40 cities, the impacts of climate change are not a far off threat. From Cape Town to Houston, Mayors are seeing severe droughts, storms, fires and more,” said Antha Williams, Head of Environmental Programs at Bloomberg Philanthropies and C40 Board Member, “As this report shows, C40 mayors are on the front line of climate change, and the actions they take today–to use less energy in buildings, transition to clean transportation and reduce waste—are necessary to ensure prosperity and safety for their citizens.”

“Climate change is already happening and the world’s great cities are feeling the impact. Cape Town is facing an unprecedented drought, but thanks to the efforts of our citizens to adapt, we have averted Day Zero, when we would have had to switch off most taps,” said Patricia de Lille, Executive Mayor of Cape Town and Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy Board Member. “The lessons from Cape Town, and from this important new research is that every city must invest today in the infrastructure and policies that will protect citizens from the future effects of our changing global climate.”

Many of the solutions being delivered by cities, as well as regional governments, investors and businesses to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, will be showcased at the Global Climate Action Summit, taking place in San Francisco, September 12-14th, 2018.

Press link for more: C40.org

Coal Is Being Squeezed Out of Power by Cheap Renewables #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani

Reed Landberg19 June 2018, 10:00 pm AEST

Coal will be increasingly squeezed out of the power generation market over the next three decades as the cost of renewables plunges and technology improves the flexibility of grids globally.

That’s the conclusion of a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which estimated some $11.5 trillion of investment will go into electricity generation between now and 2050.

Of that, 85 percent, or $9.8 trillion, will go into wind, solar and other zero-emissions technologies such as hydro and nuclear, the London-based researcher said.

Better batteries, which allow grid managers to store power for times when it’s neither breezy nor sunny, will allow utilities to take advantage of plunging costs for solar panels and wind turbines.

The ability of natural gas plants to work at a few minutes notice means the fuel will become the choice for most utilities wanting guaranteed generation capacity.

“Coal emerges as the biggest loser in the long run,” said Elena Giannakopoulou, head of energy economics at BNEF. “Beaten on cost by wind and PV for bulk electricity generation, and by batteries and gas for flexibility, the future electricity system will reorganize around cheap renewables.”

The chart below shows renewables taking dominant market shares in all of the world’s biggest electricity markets by 2050, reflecting both government policies to curb emissions and improving economics for wind and solar.

Powered By Renewables

Key economies are expected to be running on at least 50% clean energy

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

BNEF’s forecasts compare with International Energy Agency’s most optimistic scenario for electricity generation, envisioning clean energy and fossil fuels reaching parity at 50 percent of the market each in 2025. The Paris-based institution’s central forecast puts the two on par by 2040, and fossil fuels would retain about a two-thirds share of generation by then if governments make no further steps to tighten regulations, the IEA says.

BNEF’s outlook, set out in the graphs below, shows renewables are likely to end up dominating power generation by 2050, taking about the same share of the industry then that natural gas and coal enjoy now.

BNEF’s scenario, set out in a 150-page annual report drawing on the expertise of 65 analysts worldwide, is based on country-by-country modeling of how the electricity market will evolve as well as forecasts for costs of different power generation technologies.

Gas will keep much of its market share, BNEF says. The nature of plants being built in the future will shift to peaker units that utilities can switch on and off quickly and away from the baseload plants that tend to operate around the clock. The chart below shows BNEF’s forecast that utilities will burn much less coal over time.

Coal’s Decline

Power stations are predicted to burn a lot less coal in the future

The decline of coal won’t be enough to dramatically alter the picture for a gradual increase in global temperatures in excess of the threshold of 2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times that has become the United Nations climate target.

“Even if we decommission all the world’s coal plants by 2035, the power sector would still be tracking above a climate-safe trajectory, burning too much unabated gas,” said Matthias Kimmel, energy economist at BNEF.

Even without tighter environmental rules, renewables will be increasingly attractive to utilities if only because of their falling costs. Building wind and solar farms will become much cheaper by 2040, according to the BNEF estimates, while traditional nuclear and coal projects become more costly.

Crash Course

The cost of solar and wind power is expected to keep plummeting

With solar energy, the amount of capacity being installed is rising as overall capital costs decline, BNEF estimates.

Press link for more: Bloomberg

New report examines coal’s future outlook, and it isn’t pretty #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani #ClimateChange

New Bloomberg forecast sees 17-fold rise in solar by 2050, and an $8.4 trillion investment in renewables.

Jun 20, 2018, 12:20 pm

Solar Panels and wind turbines in Palm Springs. March 2015. Connie J. Spinardi/Getty Images

The era of fossil fuel dominance in power generation “is coming to an end,” concludes Bloomberg NEF in its new forecast: “Cheap renewable energy and batteries fundamentally remake electricity systems around the world.”

Bloomberg’s 150-page New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2018 released Tuesday projects that wind and solar will combine to provide 48 percent of global power generation in 2050, while coal will slump to 11 percent. And this will happen without any new climate policies, simply because renewables are becoming the cheapest power source.

“Coal is the biggest loser,” notes Bloomberg in the new forecast. This is a complete reversal from historical trends.

Solar and wind power crush coal by 2050 in new Bloomberg forecast

The on-going revolutions in renewables and batteries are driving this reversal.

First, the stunning drop in solar and wind prices of the last three decades is expected to continue for the next three, says Bloomberg. By 2050, the cost of electricity from solar farms will drop another 71 percent, and for wind power, it will fall another 58 percent.

Stunning drops in solar, wind costs mean economic case for coal, gas is ‘crumbling’

Second, Bloomberg NEF projects that lithium-ion battery prices — which dropped  almost 80 percent since 2010, will drop another 66 percent by 2030. This is driven by a quantum leap in global electric vehicle (EV) sales, from a record 1.1 million last year to a projected 30 million in 2030.

“The economic case for building new coal and gas capacity is crumbling,” warns Bloomberg, as batteries begin to provide renewables more flexibility, including the ability to shift power to peak usage times.

Why electric cars will soon be superior to gasoline cars in every respect

The result is “coal gets squeezed out,” with total consumption in the power sector dropping by more than half in the next three decades.

Meanwhile, “gas consumption for power generation remains flat out to 2050.” But gas does play “a key role, however, in backing up renewables.”

As a result of all of these shifts, heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector are expected to remain flat for the next decade and then drop nearly 40 percent by 2050.

But despite all this, Bloomberg notes, emissions would still be much too high to keep total warming below 2°C (3.6°F), which is the point at which impacts from climate change shift rapidly from dangerous to catastrophic (see chart).

Global power sector CO2 emissions under 3 scenarios.

In fact, if the world phased-out all coal plants between 2025 to 2035, “the power sector would still be tracking above a climate-safe trajectory,” explains Bloomberg NEF energy economics analyst, Matthias Kimmel. We’d still be “burning too much unabated gas.”

Such a phase-out, would, however, keep us close to a 2-degree pathway. It would  also help ensure that the shift toward vehicles running on electricity would be accompanied by a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, too.

But the fact is that we are going to have to start phasing out natural gas by the mid-2030s. The renewable energy revolution and the battery revolution are remarkable, but they don’t replace strong national and global climate policy if we are to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.

Press link for more: Think Progress

Slamming the brakes on large-scale infrastructure projects #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani #ClimateChange

Slamming the brakes on large-scale infrastructure projects

Catherine Harte | 20th June 2018

At least half of the large-scale infrastructure projects being proposed today are a bad idea, argues a leading scientist who has spent nearly forty years studying building around the world.

“And when I say ‘bad’, I don’t just mean bad for the environment,” says Distinguished Professor Bill Laurance from James Cook University in Australia. “I mean bad for economies, bad for societies, and bad for project investors.”

Professor Laurance has summarised decades of research on the costs and benefits of big infrastructure projects – such as major highways, railroads, hydropower dams and industrial mines – in an article in the journal Trends in Ecology & Evolution.

Just plain foolish

“It’s vital to understand the realities because we’re living in the most explosive era of infrastructure expansion in human history,” said Laurance.

“Most new infrastructure projects are occurring in developing nations, which direly need smart development and investment. But many proposed projects are just plain foolish.

“For starters, widespread corruption completely distorts things. Projects that should never proceed get approved because government decision-makers are being paid off by project proponents.

“And the economic benefits of big projects are often grossly unfair—a few power brokers and their cronies are becoming fabulously wealthy, while most people see little benefit or even fall behind. That’s not smart development.”

He added: “In environmental terms, we’re seeing new projects tear into the most vulnerable ecosystems on the planet.

Hidden risks

“For example, in parts of the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America, our research team is seeing Chinese-backed roads, dams, and mines happening in places that no rational investor should be touching.

“Investors assume they understand the risks and rewards of big projects. But far too often there are shoals of hidden risks, and projects that sound highly promising can turn into shipwrecks.

He concluded: “Just look around. You see big projects failing all the time. Nations are incurring big debts, investors are losing money, the environmental damage is appalling, and most of all, the average person isn’t getting ahead.

“The vital thing is to slow down the big projects. Delay them so there’s time for vital information to be disclosed and the public to debate the merits of each project.

“When the public understands what’s happening—what’s really happening—you’ll see a lot of bad projects disappear.”

This Author

Catherine Harte is a contributing editor to The Ecologist. This story is based on a news release from James Cook University, Australia.

Press link for more: The Ecologist

Health Care Without Harm praises American Medical Association divestment decision. #auspol #qldpol #StopAdani #divest #ClimateChange #AirPollution

Health Care Without Harm praises American Medical Association divestment decision

News posted by nknock@hcwh.org on June 14, 2018

Health Care Without Harm congratulates the American Medical Association (AMA) on their recent commitment to divest their financial holdings from toxic fossil fuels.

AMA’s House of Delegates’ adoption of a resolution “to end all financial investments or relationships (divestment) with companies that generate the majority of their income from the exploration for, production of, transportation of, or sale of fossil fuels” is a critical step toward ensuring health care providers first do no harm.

“It is meaningful that the American Medical Association…is saying to the dirty fuels industry now just what it said to tobacco a generation ago: You are killing our patients and we will not allow it anymore,” noted Todd Sack, MD, co-author of the divestment resolution.

From extraction to combustion, fossil fuels pose a direct threat to the health of our communities.

The air pollution from fossil fuels alone causes 200,000 premature deaths each year in the United States, and the closing of coal-fired power plants has been shown to generate immediate health improvements.

Carbon pollution from fossil fuels is also the leading cause of climate change, contributing to more intense and more frequent storms, growing vector-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses, as well as increased food and water scarcity.

Health professionals have a moral obligation not to benefit financially from an industry that endangers human health.

By choosing not to invest in companies that profit from pollution, members of the American Medical Association are fulfilling their responsibility to protect the health of their patients and communities.

AMA’s decision to divest also sends a strong message to all health professionals and medical societies that, just as the health sector divested from tobacco as a matter of professional ethics, the time has come to end all investments in harmful fossil fuels.

Peter Orris, MD, Health Care Without Harm senior advisor, stated, “With the AMA joining the British Medical Association, Canadian Medical Association, and the World Medical Association in this action, we can now securely bring this unified message to health organizations, policymakers, and civic society in general throughout the world.”

Letter to the editor template for health professionals on AMA divestment

This template was created by Health Care Without Harm for health professionals to submit to their local newspaper’s Letters to the Editor section. You are encouraged to edit the text below to make it more relevant to readers in your community.

Dear Editor,

As a [physician or nurse], I was pleased to hear the news that the American Medical Association has chosen to divest from toxic fossil fuels. In doing so, the AMA is part of a growing movement that already includes the World Medical Association, British Medical Association, and Canadian Medical Association, all of which have divested their assets from fossil fuel companies. In the 1990s, leading health organizations divested their tobacco holdings to bring attention to the harm caused by smoking. Now, such organizations are committing to divest from an another industry that profits by making us sick.

From extraction to combustion, fossil fuels pose a direct threat to the health of our communities. Air pollution from fossil fuels alone causes 200,000 premature deaths each year, but the closing of coal-fired power plants has been shown to generate immediate health improvements. Carbon pollution from fossil fuels is also the leading cause of climate change, which contributes to increased insect-borne and heat-related illnesses; food and water scarcity; and injuries, deaths and mental health impacts from extreme weather events. As health care providers, we have a moral obligation not to support an industry that causes so much harm.

It is time for all health organizations to honor our responsibility to our healing mission by divesting from fossil fuels. Our policymakers must also follow the advice of medical experts and make the decision to invest in clean energy for our health and for the health of our children and future generations.

Thank you,

[your name and professional title]

Tips for getting published and making an impact:

• Be sure to read carefully the requirements for your local newspaper’s letter-to-the-editor submissions and follow the instructions, including word count limits.

• Instead of the general health effects of pollution and climate change, edit this template to include the specific impacts you see in your daily practice as a health professional in your region.

• Rather than closing with a general call to action, edit this template to include a specific recommendation. For example, name local policymakers or proposed city or state policies to increase renewable energy.

Press link for more: No Harm